Union polling suggests the Liberal National Party could lose the state seat of Redcliffe to Labor at next year’s by-election.
The seat, north of Brisbane, was vacated by LNP turned independent Scott Driscoll in November after he was found in contempt of parliament for being dishonest about his business dealings and fined $90,000.
The LNP has selected nurse educator Kerri-Anne Dooley to go up against Labor’s former federal MP Yvette D’Ath.
Ms Dooley ran against Mr Driscoll for Family First in the 2012 state election, winning just 4.5 per cent of the primary vote.
A new poll commissioned by union group Working for Queenslanders shows the Newman government’s mismanagement of the health system will hurt Ms Dooley’s chances and could help Labor gain its eighth seat in parliament.
The ReachTEL survey of 774 Redcliffe residents on December 13 and 14 found that Labor would get 42.1 per cent of the primary vote, the LNP 35.5 per cent, the Palmer United Party 8.6 per cent, the Greens 5.1 per cent and Katter’s Australian Party 0.2 per cent.
The polling also showed 43 per cent of Redcliffe voters believed the public health system has worsening under the LNP and only 28 per cent thought the government was managing the public health system well or very well.
Union secretary Alex Scott claimed the polls clearly show the LNP is on the nose, despite winning the seat with 60 per cent of the vote after preferences just 18 months ago.
“The Redcliffe community is deeply opposed to changes this government has made to the health system, we know the be-election will be decided on the issue of health,” Mr Scott.
“Hundreds of doctors will be campaigning to make sure this is a be-election on health.”
An LNP spokesman says Ms Dooley, a lifelong Redcliffe resident, would be a great advocate for the electorate that had been let down by Mr Driscoll.
“Like everyone in Redcliffe, Kerri-Anne Dooley feels let down and disappointed by the events of the past year by the previous member,” he said.
The by-election is likely to be held in early February and Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney says Premier Campbell Newman will announce a date in mid January.
“I don’t think anybody wants to deal with politics over Christmas,” Mr Seeney said.
The Palmer United Party will not contest the by-election.